Commercial and Business Jet industry in 2025

The commercial and business jet industry in 2025 shows strong recovery and growth, with business jet deliveries projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels, driven by sustained demand for private travel, increased wealth, and technological advancements, though the commercial airline sector still grapples with severe supply chain bottlenecks, leading to huge order backlogs and extended delivery times for new aircraft. Key trends include a shift to regional travel hubs (Texas, Florida), longer sales cycles for used jets, and innovation in electric air taxis (eVTOLs) like Joby Aviation.

Passenger traffic is forecast to grow 4.2 percent annually ─ more than doubling in size as it continues to outpace global economic growth. The global fleet will nearly double to more than 49,600 commercial airplanes as airlines add capacity to meet travel demand.

About 80% of in-service airplanes will be replaced with more than 21,000 deliveries, improving fleet efficiency and capability.

Single-aisle airplanes will make up 72 percent of the global fleet, up from 66 percent in 2024, driven largely by short-haul travel and low-cost carriers in emerging markets.

The global passenger widebody fleet will increase to approximately 8,320 airplanes, up from roughly 4,400 in 2024 ─ growth increasingly driven by carriers in emerging markets expanding their long-haul fleets. Supply chain diversification and expanding express cargo networks will drive a nearly two-thirds expansion of the global freighter fleet and the need for 2,900 production and converted freighters.

The Company now targets around 790 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2025. Airbus maintains its financial guidance as provided at the Nine-Month 2025 results. The Company still targets an EBIT Adjusted of around € 7.0 billion and Free Cash Flow before Customer Financing of around € 4.5 billion.

Airbus' latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the 2025-2044 period provides a comprehensive outlook for the evolution of air transportation. Following a robust recovery, the aviation sector is poised for sustained growth driven by societal and economic drivers. This forecast projects significant increase in passenger demand, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, coupled with a transformation towards a more sustainable and efficient global aviation system.

Forecasts suggest over 800 new business jet deliveries in 2025, exceeding 2019 levels for the first time post-pandemic. Continued strong demand from high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and corporations, plus increased flight hours by private and fractional operators.

Honeywell forecasts a record-setting number of new business jet deliveries over the next decade. Honeywell predicts 8,500 new business jets with a projected value of $283 billion – the highest in the report’s 34-year history – will be delivered over the next 10 years with an average annual growth rate of 3%.

New business jet deliveries in 2026 are expected to be 5% higher than in 2025. New business jet deliveries are expected to grow by 3% annually on average over the next 10 years. 91% of those surveyed expect to fly more or about the same in 2026 compared to 2025.

For 2026, IATA forecast a 4.9% YoY growth in passenger traffic (measured in RPK), led by the Asia Pacific region’s expansion by 7.3%. This marginal deceleration over 2025 is mainly because of persistent supply-side constraints, including limited aircraft availability, and labor shortages. Supply constraints continue to keep load factors at record highs, projected at 83.8%, which in turn supports yields and profits in an otherwise turbulent operating environment. Resilient traffic growth, together with stable yields should allow the industry to top the USD 1 trillion revenues for the first time in 2025.

Regionally, Europe is set to deliver the highest net profit, very much thanks to Turkey’s stellar performance. The Middle East is the region with the highest profit margins. Asia Pacific is where growth is the most rapid, and Latin America shows signs of structural improvement. North America faces new headwinds, including stagnating domestic demand and operational constraints, yet it remains a key contributor to industry profitability.

Sustainability is a priority for the airline industry, which is firmly committed to achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Key solutions for the industry’s decarbonization are not coming to market fast enough. SAF is projected to cover less than 1% of total fuel consumption in 2026, in an unambiguous verdict on how ineffective the current policy environment is. This unfortunately extends to the lack of harmonization between CORSIA and a multitude of other regional and national initiatives that cause fragmentation, raise costs, and curtail actual emissions reductions. Policy makers must show the will to address the energy transition at the global level, allowing all industries to operate with both financial and environmental sustainability.